Ehime FC 2–4 Fujieda MYFC: Result & Stats

Ehime FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Fujieda MYFC

H. Koda 67'

B. Duncan 53'

M. Sugita 19'

Anderson Chaves 15', 5' (pen)

R. Asakura 12'

4/29/2025

J2 League · Round 12Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ehime FC36%

×Draw27%

Fujieda MYFC36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ehime FCExpected goals in this matchFujieda MYFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Ehime FC

1.25

Fujieda MYFC

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

0.91

creates per match

0.87

1.64

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ehime FC

0.91

Fujieda MYFC

0.87

allows per match

Ehime FC

1.64

Fujieda MYFC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Fujieda MYFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw

64%

Ehime FC or Fujieda MYFC

73%

Draw or Fujieda MYFC

64%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+

16%

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals

71%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

36%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

13%

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

71%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

36%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

50%

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.91 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fujieda MYFC attack 0.87 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ehime FC scores more

36%

level

27%

Fujieda MYFC scores more

36%

Ehime FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ehime FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Anderson ChavesPenalty

12'

R. Asakura

15'

Anderson Chaves↳ C. Kawakami

19'

M. Sugita↳ Anderson Chaves

27'

H. Yoshida

28'

H. Muto← T. Kuroishi

28'

T. Yukutomo← R. Kubota

31'

K. Enomoto← C. Kawakami

38'

H. Koda

46'

Y. Matsushita← M. Sugita

53'

B. Duncan↳ H. Yoshida

54'

H. Sese← R. Asakura

60'

K. Moriyama

65'

Y. Taguchi← Y. Fujihara

65'

Arthur Viana← B. Duncan

67'

H. Koda

73'

K. C. Kitamura

77'

T. Kusumoto← Y. Mori

77'

S. Matsuki← Anderson Chaves

80'

R. Sato←

82'

Arthur Viana

Ehime

Fujieda

41

Kitamura

22

Hisadomi

4

Nakagawa

16

▼

Mori

50

Kaneko

33

A

▼

Kawakami

15

⚽

▼

Sugita

19

Shimabuku

8

⚽

▼

Asakura

11

⚽2A

▼

9

36

29

4

44

16

13

▼

Kubota

24

⚽

Koda

25

A

Yoshida

19

▼

Kuroishi

11

▼

Fujihara

9

⚽

▼

Duncan

Manager: Shinya Aono

28'▲H. Muto←▼T. Kuroishi

28'▲T. Yukutomo←▼R. Kubota

65'▲Y. Taguchi←▼Y. Fujihara

65'▲Arthur Viana←▼B. Duncan

80'▲R. Sato←▼—

Ehime FC substitutes

31Shirasaka3Scalese21Keon-Woo7Soneda39Muto48Yukutomo10Sato18Taguchi90Viana

Manager: Daisuke Sudo

31'▲K. Enomoto←▼C. Kawakami

46'▲Y. Matsushita←▼M. Sugita

54'▲H. Sese←▼R. Asakura

77'▲T. Kusumoto←▼Y. Mori

77'▲S. Matsuki←▼Anderson Chaves

Fujieda MYFC substitutes

1Rokutan5Kusumoto25Nakamura6Sese10Enomoto18Matsushita7Matsuki20Kanda29Diamanka