Ehime FC vs Fujieda MYFC — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 59+ matches
Ehime FC36%
Fujieda MYFC37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 124 home / 59 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ehime FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches
Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30
Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Fujieda MYFC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Fujieda MYFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Tokushima Vortis
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
Ventforet Kofu
Kitakyushu
Jubilo Iwata
Montedio Yamagata
Kyoto Sanga
Mito Hollyhock
Tochigi SC
Albirex Niigata
Tokyo Verdy
Matsumoto Yamaga
JEF United Chiba
Omiya Ardija
FC Ryukyu
Fagiano Okayama
Kanazawa
Machida Zelvia
Thespakusatsu GunmaEhime FC
Renofa YamaguchiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ehime FC host Fujieda MYFC on Saturday, 30 March 2024 at 07:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Ehime FC 3 – 0 Fujieda MYFC
Ehime FC beat Fujieda MYFC 3-0 in J2 League on March 30, 2024.
Goals: S. Motegi (47'), R. Matsuda (72'), S. Kikuchi (88').
The match was played at Ningineer Stadium in Matsuyama.