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Egypt U20 vs Algeria U20 — Friendlies 2018

Egypt U20
Egypt U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Algeria U20
Algeria U20
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalEgyptian National Teams Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Egypt U2038%
×Draw32%
Algeria U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egypt U20
1.00
Algeria U20
0.83

Egypt U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Egypt U20
1.33
Algeria U20
0.67

allows per match

Egypt U20
1.00
Algeria U20
0.67

finishing

Egypt U20+0.00on par
Algeria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egypt U20 ↓

Algeria U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Egypt U20 or draw
71%
Egypt U20 or Algeria U20
68%
Draw or Algeria U20
62%

Winning margin

Egypt U20 wins by 2+
15%
Algeria U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Egypt U20 1+ goals
63%
Egypt U20 2+ goals
26%
Egypt U20 3+ goals
8%
Algeria U20 1+ goals
56%
Algeria U20 2+ goals
20%
Algeria U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Egypt U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Algeria U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egypt U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Algeria U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egypt U20 attack 1.33 + Algeria U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Algeria U20 attack 0.67 + Egypt U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Egypt U20 scores more
38%
level
32%
Algeria U20 scores more
29%

Egypt U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Egypt U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egypt U20 vs Algeria U20

Egypt U20 and Algeria U20 drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

The match was played at Egyptian National Teams Center.