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Algeria U20 vs Egypt U20 — Friendlies 2018

Algeria U20
Algeria U20
FT
2 – 1
Egypt U20
Egypt U20
3/20/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Algeria U2045%
×Draw23%
Egypt U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria U20
1.83
Egypt U20
1.50

Algeria U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Algeria U20
2.33
Egypt U20
1.33

allows per match

Algeria U20
1.67
Egypt U20
1.33

finishing

Algeria U20+0.00on par
Egypt U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria U20 ↓

Egypt U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Algeria U20 or draw
68%
Algeria U20 or Egypt U20
77%
Draw or Egypt U20
55%

Winning margin

Algeria U20 wins by 2+
25%
Egypt U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Algeria U20 1+ goals
84%
Algeria U20 2+ goals
54%
Algeria U20 3+ goals
28%
Egypt U20 1+ goals
78%
Egypt U20 2+ goals
44%
Egypt U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Algeria U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Egypt U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria U20 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Egypt U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria U20 attack 2.33 + Egypt U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Egypt U20 attack 1.33 + Algeria U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Algeria U20 scores more
45%
level
23%
Egypt U20 scores more
32%

Algeria U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Algeria U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Algeria U20 2–1 Egypt U20

Algeria U20 beat Egypt U20 2-1 in Friendlies on March 20, 2024.