EGS Gafsa 0–1 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats | Cup

EGS Gafsa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

JS Kairouanaise

M. Ben Romdhane 41'

11/30/2016

Cup · 16th FinalsStade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

EGS Gafsa24%

×Draw24%

JS Kairouanaise51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.68

EGS Gafsa

1.08

JS Kairouanaise

1.68

JS Kairouanaise creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.56

creates per match

1.80

1.56

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.56

JS Kairouanaise

1.80

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

1.56

JS Kairouanaise

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

49%

EGS Gafsa or JS Kairouanaise

76%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

76%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

9%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

66%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

29%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

10%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

81%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

50%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

32%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.56 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.80 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

24%

level

24%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

51%

JS Kairouanaise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

M. Ben Romdhane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff