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EGS Gafsa vs JS Kairouanaise — League #202 2026

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
J. Bessan 90+1', 82'
A. Harzi 10'
5/29/2016League #202League #202 · Round 28Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EGS Gafsa52%
×Draw23%
JS Kairouanaise25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.83
JS Kairouanaise
1.19

EGS Gafsa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
2.00
JS Kairouanaise
1.67

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.71
JS Kairouanaise
1.67

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
75%
EGS Gafsa or JS Kairouanaise
77%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
48%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
29%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
84%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
54%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
28%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
70%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
33%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
68%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 2.00 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.67 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
52%
level
23%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
25%

EGS Gafsa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Harzi
82'
J. Bessan
90+1'
J. Bessan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: EGS Gafsa 2–1 JS Kairouanaise

EGS Gafsa beat JS Kairouanaise 2-1 in League #202 on May 29, 2016.

Goals: A. Harzi (10'), J. Bessan (82', 90+1').

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.