EGS Gafsa 1–1 ES Zarzis: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EGS Gafsa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ES Zarzis

4/1/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

EGS Gafsa44%

×Draw28%

ES Zarzis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchES Zarzis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

EGS Gafsa

1.31

ES Zarzis

0.97

EGS Gafsa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.63

creates per match

1.39

0.55

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.63

ES Zarzis

1.39

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

0.55

ES Zarzis

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

ES Zarzis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

72%

EGS Gafsa or ES Zarzis

72%

Draw or ES Zarzis

56%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

20%

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

73%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

38%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

14%

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

62%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

25%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

62%

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + ES Zarzis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

ES Zarzis attack 1.39 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

44%

level

28%

ES Zarzis scores more

28%

EGS Gafsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff