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EGS Gafsa vs ES Zarzis — Cup 2019

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
1 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
1/5/2020CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

EGS Gafsa32%
×Draw27%
ES Zarzis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.15
ES Zarzis
1.36

ES Zarzis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.75
ES Zarzis
1.09

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
ES Zarzis
0.55

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
58%
EGS Gafsa or ES Zarzis
73%
Draw or ES Zarzis
68%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
13%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
68%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
32%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
11%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
74%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
39%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
43%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.75 + ES Zarzis defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

ES Zarzis attack 1.09 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
32%
level
27%
ES Zarzis scores more
42%

ES Zarzis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs ES Zarzis

EGS Gafsa beat ES Zarzis 1-0 in Cup on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.