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Egersund vs Vidar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Egersund
Egersund
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vidar
Vidar
Unknown 86', 54', 52', 21'
Unknown 27'
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Egersund58%
×Draw17%
Vidar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egersund
3.35
Vidar
2.23

Egersund creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Egersund
2.29
Vidar
1.60

allows per match

Egersund
2.86
Vidar
4.40

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par
Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Vidar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Egersund or draw
75%
Egersund or Vidar
83%
Draw or Vidar
42%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+
40%
Vidar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals
96%
Egersund 2+ goals
84%
Egersund 3+ goals
63%
Vidar 1+ goals
89%
Vidar 2+ goals
65%
Vidar 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)
70%
Vidar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Vidar away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.29 + Vidar defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.35

Vidar attack 1.60 + Egersund defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Egersund scores more
58%
level
17%
Vidar scores more
25%

Egersund at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
27'
52'
54'
86'
Egersund
Vidar
Endre Eide
Manager: Endre Eide
K. Sørli
Manager: K. Sørli

Friendlies Clubs: Egersund 4–1 Vidar

Egersund beat Vidar 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.

Goals: ? (21', 27', 52', 54', 86').