Egersund 4–0 Vidar: Result & Stats

Egersund

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vidar

S. Sleveland 79'

M. Naglestad 75', 62', 47'

8/17/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 16Egersund Idrettsparken (Egersund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Egersund69%

×Draw17%

Vidar13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgersundExpected goals in this matchVidar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.98

Egersund

2.46

Vidar

0.98

Egersund creates 151% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

2.85

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Egersund

2.85

Vidar

0.86

allows per match

Egersund

1.09

Vidar

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par

Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Vidar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Egersund or draw

87%

Egersund or Vidar

83%

Draw or Vidar

31%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+

47%

Vidar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals

91%

Egersund 2+ goals

70%

Egersund 3+ goals

44%

Vidar 1+ goals

62%

Vidar 2+ goals

26%

Vidar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)

84%

Vidar (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Vidar away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.85 + Vidar defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.46

Vidar attack 0.86 + Egersund defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Egersund scores more

69%

level

17%

Vidar scores more

13%

Egersund at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

62'

75'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff