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Eger vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
8/6/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 2Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Eger45%
×Draw25%
Diósgyőr II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.58
Diósgyőr II
1.27

Eger creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eger or draw
69%
Eger or Diósgyőr II
75%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
55%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
23%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
79%
Eger 2+ goals
47%
Eger 3+ goals
21%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
72%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
36%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
59%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eger scores more
45%
level
25%
Diósgyőr II scores more
31%

Eger at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Eger 2–1 Diósgyőr II

Eger beat Diósgyőr II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 6, 2025.

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.