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Diósgyőr II vs Eger — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eger
Eger
4/13/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 24DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Diósgyőr II46%
×Draw23%
Eger31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
1.81
Eger
1.46

Diósgyőr II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Eger
1.23

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Eger
1.89

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Eger+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Eger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
69%
Diósgyőr II or Eger
77%
Draw or Eger
54%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
25%
Eger wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
84%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
54%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
27%
Eger 1+ goals
77%
Eger 2+ goals
43%
Eger 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
59%
Eger (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Eger away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.89 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Eger defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Eger attack 1.23 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
46%
level
23%
Eger scores more
31%

Diósgyőr II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Diósgyőr II 0–0 Eger

Diósgyőr II and Eger drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.