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Eemdijk vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Eemdijk
Eemdijk
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
11/30/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 15Sportpark De Vinken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eemdijk41%
×Draw22%
DVS 33 Ermelo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eemdijk
1.81
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

Eemdijk
2.12
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Eemdijk
1.90
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Eemdijk+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eemdijk ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eemdijk or draw
63%
Eemdijk or DVS 33 Ermelo
78%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
59%

Winning margin

Eemdijk wins by 2+
21%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Eemdijk 1+ goals
84%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
54%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
27%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
82%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
51%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Eemdijk (draw refunded)
52%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eemdijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eemdijk attack 2.12 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.81

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Eemdijk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eemdijk scores more
41%
level
22%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
37%

Eemdijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eemdijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eemdijk vs DVS 33 Ermelo

DVS 33 Ermelo beat Eemdijk 5-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vinken in Bunschoten.