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DVS 33 Ermelo vs Eemdijk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eemdijk
Eemdijk
12/6/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 16Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo52%
×Draw22%
Eemdijk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.94
Eemdijk
1.32

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 51 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
Eemdijk
1.57

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
Eemdijk
1.76

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
Eemdijk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Eemdijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
74%
DVS 33 Ermelo or Eemdijk
78%
Draw or Eemdijk
48%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
30%
Eemdijk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
86%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
58%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
30%
Eemdijk 1+ goals
73%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
38%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
66%
Eemdijk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Eemdijk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Eemdijk defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eemdijk attack 1.57 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
52%
level
22%
Eemdijk scores more
26%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: DVS 33 Ermelo 3–0 Eemdijk

DVS 33 Ermelo beat Eemdijk 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.