EDMF Churra 1–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

EDMF Churra

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Matías 74'

Peque 47'

5/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 5Campo Municipal de la Flota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra44%

×Draw29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EDMF ChurraExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.94

EDMF Churra

1.27

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.94

EDMF Churra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

1.10

creates per match

0.85

1.03

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

EDMF Churra

1.10

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

EDMF Churra

1.03

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw

73%

EDMF Churra or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

71%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

56%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

20%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

72%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

36%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

14%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

61%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

62%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

EDMF Churra scores more

44%

level

29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

27%

EDMF Churra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Jesus Perez← Javi Muñoz

46'

Rubén Hernández← Emilio Pérez

47'

Peque

74'

Cascales← Alberto Robles

74'

Mario Santiago← J. Quinto

74'

Alejandro Pérez← José Mariano

74'

Matías

83'

Alvaro Esquinas← J. Díaz

EDMF

CAP

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Pelegrin

46'▲Jesus Perez←▼Javi Muñoz

46'▲Rubén Hernández←▼Emilio Pérez

74'▲Cascales←▼Alberto Robles

EDMF Churra substitutes

PerezHernándezCascales

Manager: Juan López

74'▲Mario Santiago←▼J. Quinto

74'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼José Mariano

83'▲Alvaro Esquinas←▼J. Díaz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

SantiagoPérezEsquinas

Match Recap: EDMF Churra vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

EDMF Churra and CAP Ciudad de Murcia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Peque (47'), Matías (74').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de la Flota in Murcia.

EDMF Churra vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: EDMF Churra vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia