CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–2 EDMF Churra

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

EDMF Churra

Pedro Cárceles 89'

Feli Martínez 43'

Antonio Fenoll 48'

Emilio Pérez 44'

6/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia48%

×Draw26%

EDMF Churra26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchEDMF Churra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.48

EDMF Churra

1.00

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

EDMF Churra

0.96

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

EDMF Churra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

EDMF Churra →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or EDMF Churra

74%

Draw or EDMF Churra

52%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

24%

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

77%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

43%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

19%

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

63%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

26%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

65%

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

48%

level

26%

EDMF Churra scores more

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Feli Martínez

44'

Emilio Pérez

48'

Antonio Fenoll

52'

N. Kwaku← Mario Santiago

52'

Pablo Escavy← Antonio Ortiz

52'

Pedro Cárceles← D. Ramírez

58'

Matías← Emilio Pérez

78'

Alejandro González← Álex García

78'

Ángel Álvarez← Alvaro Esquinas

78'

Rubén Hernández← Cascales

86'

Jesus Perez← Curro

86'

Sito← Francisco Carrillo

86'

Néstor Ávila← Alberto Robles

89'

Pedro Cárceles

CAP

EDMF

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⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

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⚽

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Manager: Juan López

52'▲N. Kwaku←▼Mario Santiago

52'▲Pablo Escavy←▼Antonio Ortiz

52'▲Pedro Cárceles←▼D. Ramírez

78'▲Alejandro González←▼Álex García

78'▲Ángel Álvarez←▼Alvaro Esquinas

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

KwakuEscavyCárcelesGonzálezÁlvarez

Manager: Juan Pelegrin

58'▲Matías←▼Emilio Pérez

78'▲Rubén Hernández←▼Cascales

86'▲Jesus Perez←▼Curro

86'▲Sito←▼Francisco Carrillo

86'▲Néstor Ávila←▼Alberto Robles

EDMF Churra substitutes

MatíasHernándezPerezSitoÁvila