EDMF Churra 0–1 Águilas: Result & Stats

EDMF Churra

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Águilas

2/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Campo Municipal de la Flota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra30%

×Draw31%

Águilas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EDMF ChurraExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.06

EDMF Churra

0.90

Águilas

1.06

Águilas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

1.03

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

EDMF Churra

1.10

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

EDMF Churra

1.03

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Águilas →

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw

61%

EDMF Churra or Águilas

69%

Draw or Águilas

70%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

10%

Águilas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

59%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

23%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

Águilas 1+ goals

65%

Águilas 2+ goals

29%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

44%

Águilas (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Águilas attack 1.10 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

EDMF Churra scores more

30%

level

31%

Águilas scores more

39%

Águilas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff