Águilas 1–1 EDMF Churra: Result & Stats

Águilas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

EDMF Churra

11/25/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Águilas63%

×Draw21%

EDMF Churra16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilasExpected goals in this matchEDMF Churra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.92

Águilas

2.02

EDMF Churra

0.92

Águilas creates 120% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

2.10

creates per match

0.96

0.88

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Águilas

2.10

EDMF Churra

0.96

allows per match

Águilas

0.88

EDMF Churra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

EDMF Churra →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Águilas or draw

84%

Águilas or EDMF Churra

79%

Draw or EDMF Churra

37%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+

38%

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals

87%

Águilas 2+ goals

60%

Águilas 3+ goals

33%

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

60%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

23%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)

79%

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Águilas scores more

63%

level

21%

EDMF Churra scores more

16%

Águilas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff