VfL Wolfsburg 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bayer Leverkusen

J. Brandt 88'

K. Volland 62'

K. Havertz 45' (pen)

1/26/2019

Bundesliga · Round 19Volkswagen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg40%

×Draw24%

Bayer Leverkusen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.52

VfL Wolfsburg

1.62

Bayer Leverkusen

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

1.77

creates per match

1.53

1.50

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.77

Bayer Leverkusen

1.53

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.50

Bayer Leverkusen

1.47

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.54scores less

Bayer Leverkusen+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

64%

VfL Wolfsburg or Bayer Leverkusen

76%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen

60%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

20%

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

80%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

48%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

22%

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals

78%

Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals

45%

Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

53%

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.77 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.53 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

40%

level

24%

Bayer Leverkusen scores more

36%

VfL Wolfsburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Casteels

VfL Wolfsburg · G

8.4

Match Events

28'

33'

44'

45'

45'

K. HavertzPenalty

54'

John Brooks

55'

Wendell

62'

K. Volland↳ C. Aránguiz

63'

J. Brekalo← E. Rexhbecaj

76'

Leon Bailey

77'

F. Klaus← William

77'

J. Baumgartlinger← L. Bailey

78'

M. Weiser← Wendell

86'

Maximilian Arnold

88'

J. Brandt↳ K. Bellarabi

90'

Jérôme Roussillon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLBayer

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots23

5Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots23

4On Target14

4Off Target7

3Blocked2

10Inside Box16

1Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

378Total Passes460

288Accurate Passes381

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

11Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

6Offsides0

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-0 in Bundesliga on January 26, 2019.

Goals: K. Havertz (45' pen), K. Volland (62'), J. Brandt (88').

Bayer Leverkusen controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 11.

The match was played at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.

VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen