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Edirnespor vs Çorluspor 1947 — League #552 2026

Edirnespor
Edirnespor
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Çorluspor 1947
Çorluspor 1947
N. Caglar 61', 51', 46' (pen)
M. Arslantas 43' (pen)
K. Yagci 31'
12/12/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 13Tunca Futbol Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edirnespor7%
×Draw14%
Çorluspor 194779%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edirnespor
0.67
Çorluspor 1947
2.63

Çorluspor 1947 creates 293% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Edirnespor
0.00
Çorluspor 1947
3.67

allows per match

Edirnespor
1.60
Çorluspor 1947
1.33

finishing

Edirnespor+0.00on par
Çorluspor 1947+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edirnespor ↓

Çorluspor 1947 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Edirnespor or draw
21%
Edirnespor or Çorluspor 1947
86%
Draw or Çorluspor 1947
93%

Winning margin

Edirnespor wins by 2+
2%
Çorluspor 1947 wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Edirnespor 1+ goals
49%
Edirnespor 2+ goals
15%
Edirnespor 3+ goals
3%
Çorluspor 1947 1+ goals
93%
Çorluspor 1947 2+ goals
73%
Çorluspor 1947 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Edirnespor (draw refunded)
8%
Çorluspor 1947 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edirnespor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Çorluspor 1947 away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edirnespor attack 0.00 + Çorluspor 1947 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Çorluspor 1947 attack 3.67 + Edirnespor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Edirnespor scores more
7%
level
14%
Çorluspor 1947 scores more
79%

Çorluspor 1947 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Çorluspor 1947 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
K. Yagci↳ M. Arslantas
43'
M. ArslantasPenalty
46'
N. CaglarPenalty
51'
N. Caglar↳ O. Turan
61'
N. Caglar↳ O. Turan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edirnespor vs Çorluspor 1947

Çorluspor 1947 beat Edirnespor 5-0 in League #552 on December 12, 2025.

Goals: K. Yagci (31'), M. Arslantas (43' pen), N. Caglar (46' pen, 51', 61').

The match was played at Tunca Futbol Sahası in Edirne.