Eding Sport 1–3 Colombe: Result & Stats | Elite One

Eding Sport

FT

1 – 3

Colombe

1/6/2020

Elite One · Round 16Centre Technique de la FECAFOOT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport33%

×Draw30%

Colombe37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchColombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.06

Eding Sport

0.98

Colombe

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 92 away

1.02

creates per match

1.18

0.94

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.02

Colombe

1.18

allows per match

Eding Sport

0.94

Colombe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Colombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

63%

Eding Sport or Colombe

70%

Draw or Colombe

67%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

12%

Colombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

62%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

26%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

8%

Colombe 1+ goals

65%

Colombe 2+ goals

29%

Colombe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

47%

Colombe (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Colombe attack 1.18 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Eding Sport scores more

33%

level

30%

Colombe scores more

37%

Colombe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff