Colombe 1–1 Eding Sport: Result & Stats | Elite One

Colombe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eding Sport

3/19/2023

Elite One · Round 17Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Colombe45%

×Draw29%

Eding Sport26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombeExpected goals in this matchEding Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Colombe

1.27

Eding Sport

0.89

Colombe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 54 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.78

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Colombe

1.41

Eding Sport

1.00

allows per match

Colombe

0.78

Eding Sport

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Eding Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Colombe or draw

74%

Colombe or Eding Sport

71%

Draw or Eding Sport

55%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+

21%

Eding Sport wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals

72%

Colombe 2+ goals

36%

Colombe 3+ goals

14%

Eding Sport 1+ goals

59%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

22%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)

63%

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colombe scores more

45%

level

29%

Eding Sport scores more

26%

Colombe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff