Edinburgh City 3–5 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

3 – 5

HT: 3 – 3

Kelty Hearts

R. McLean 20', 7'

S. Mercer 4'

R. Cunningham 54'

C. Johnston 49', 27'

T. Daramola 45+3', 42'

7/19/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Meadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Edinburgh City31%

×Draw20%

Kelty Hearts49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.33

Edinburgh City

1.82

Kelty Hearts

2.33

Kelty Hearts creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.25

creates per match

1.90

2.75

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.25

Kelty Hearts

1.90

allows per match

Edinburgh City

2.75

Kelty Hearts

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

51%

Edinburgh City or Kelty Hearts

80%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

69%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

15%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

84%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

54%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

27%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

90%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

67%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

38%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.25 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kelty Hearts attack 1.90 + Edinburgh City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

31%

level

20%

Kelty Hearts scores more

49%

Kelty Hearts at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Mercer↳ I. Murray

7'

R. McLean↳ D. Handling

20'

R. McLean

27'

C. Johnston

33'

S. Mercer

42'

T. Daramola↳ A. Corbett

44'

C. Brian← B. Stirling

45+3'

49'

50'

51'

54'

R. Cunningham↳ M. Tidser

59'

I. Murray

65'

L. Moore← R. Cunningham

74'

B. Biabi← C. Johnston

77'

C. McNamara← R. Mahon

79'

S. Mair← I. Murray

82'

T. Daramola

Edinburgh

Kelty

1

Gourlay

5

Thomson

4

O'Ware

2

A

Corbett

12

A

8

17

11

9

⚽2

▼

Johnston

10

⚽

▼

Cunningha

7

⚽2

1

2

4

5

⚽

Mercer

20

▼

Stirling

13

Jacobs

10

A

Handling

23

A

▼

Murray

25

Mitchell

17

⚽2

McLean

7

▼

Mahon

Manager: A. Maybury

44'▲C. Brian←▼B. Stirling

77'▲C. McNamara←▼R. Mahon

79'▲S. Mair←▼I. Murray

Edinburgh City substitutes

22Brian28McNamara26Mair21Quate30Crane8Leitch

Manager: M. Tidser

65'▲L. Moore←▼R. Cunningham

74'▲B. Biabi←▼C. Johnston

Kelty Hearts substitutes

23Moore14Biabi15Owens20Campbell21Cameron22Shearer

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts

Kelty Hearts beat Edinburgh City 5-3 in League Cup on July 19, 2023.

Goals: S. Mercer (4'), R. McLean (7', 20'), C. Johnston (27', 49'), T. Daramola (42', 45+3'), R. Cunningham (54').

The match was played at Meadowbank Stadium in Edinburgh.

Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts