Edinburgh City 1–1 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kelty Hearts

4/1/2022

League Two · Round 32Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Edinburgh City31%

×Draw25%

Kelty Hearts43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.50

Edinburgh City

1.24

Kelty Hearts

1.50

Kelty Hearts creates 21% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 19 away

1.64

creates per match

1.74

1.25

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.64

Kelty Hearts

1.74

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.25

Kelty Hearts

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

57%

Edinburgh City or Kelty Hearts

75%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

69%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

13%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

71%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

35%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

13%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

78%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

44%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

42%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.64 + Kelty Hearts defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kelty Hearts attack 1.74 + Edinburgh City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

31%

level

25%

Kelty Hearts scores more

43%

Kelty Hearts at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff