Edinburgh City 0–1 Hamilton Academical

Edinburgh City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hamilton Academical

7/9/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Edinburgh City18%

×Draw19%

Hamilton Academical63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

2.31

Edinburgh City

1.16

Hamilton Academical

2.31

Hamilton Academical creates 99% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.25

creates per match

1.87

2.75

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.25

Hamilton Academical

1.87

allows per match

Edinburgh City

2.75

Hamilton Academical

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

37%

Edinburgh City or Hamilton Academical

81%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

82%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

7%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

69%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

32%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

11%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

90%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

67%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

22%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.25 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hamilton Academical attack 1.87 + Edinburgh City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

18%

level

19%

Hamilton Academical scores more

63%

Hamilton Academical at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff