Hamilton Academical 5–0 Edinburgh City

Hamilton Academical

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Edinburgh City

M. Miller 84'

A. Winter 80'

S. Martin 44'

S. McMann 26'

A. Dales 22'

1/18/2020

FA Cup · 4th RoundFountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hamilton Academical57%

×Draw22%

Edinburgh City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.14

Hamilton Academical

2.00

Edinburgh City

1.14

Hamilton Academical creates 75% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

0.57

1.71

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.86

Edinburgh City

0.57

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.71

Edinburgh City

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

79%

Hamilton Academical or Edinburgh City

78%

Draw or Edinburgh City

43%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

34%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

86%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

59%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

32%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

68%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

32%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

73%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.86 + Edinburgh City defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Edinburgh City attack 0.57 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

57%

level

22%

Edinburgh City scores more

21%

Hamilton Academical at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Dales↳ A. McGowan

23'

S. Shepherd

26'

S. McMann

33'

W. Collar← A. McGowan

44'

S. Martin↳ W. Collar

46'

J. Hunt← S. McMann

53'

M. Fjortoft

61'

A. Winter← A. Dales

77'

J. Court← S. Shepherd

80'

A. Winter↳ W. Collar

81'

J. Sinclair← A. Harris

84'

M. Miller↳ B. Alston

Hamilton

Edinburgh

21

2

5

15

14

12

10

33

▼

Harris

22

Henderson

8

Brown

19

▼

1

24

13

3

⚽

▼

McMann

2

A

▼

McGowan

5

Fjørtoft

10

A

Alston

26

⚽

▼

Dales

25

⚽

Martin

9

Oakley

11

⚽

Miller

Manager: B. Rice

33'▲W. Collar←▼A. McGowan

46'▲J. Hunt←▼S. McMann

61'▲A. Winter←▼A. Dales

Hamilton Academical substitutes

7Collar6Hunt19Winter8Davies28Smith22Gourlay99Ogboe

Manager: J. McDonaugh

77'▲J. Court←▼S. Shepherd

81'▲J. Sinclair←▼A. Harris

Edinburgh City substitutes

26Court11Sinclair20Shaw18Newman1Beveridge16Stewart6Quate

FA Cup: Hamilton Academical 5–0 Edinburgh City

Hamilton Academical beat Edinburgh City 5-0 in FA Cup on January 18, 2020.

Goals: A. Dales (22'), S. McMann (26'), S. Martin (44'), A. Winter (80'), M. Miller (84').

The match was played at Fountain of Youth Stadium in Hamilton.

Hamilton Academical vs Edinburgh City — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Hamilton Academical 5–0 Edinburgh City