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Edinburgh City vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2018

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
7/23/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Edinburgh City36%
×Draw20%
East Kilbride43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh City
1.98
East Kilbride
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Edinburgh City
1.25
East Kilbride
1.57

allows per match

Edinburgh City
2.75
East Kilbride
2.71

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par
East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

East Kilbride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw
57%
Edinburgh City or East Kilbride
80%
Draw or East Kilbride
64%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+
19%
East Kilbride wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals
86%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
59%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
31%
East Kilbride 1+ goals
88%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
63%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
46%
East Kilbride (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.25 + East Kilbride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

East Kilbride attack 1.57 + Edinburgh City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Edinburgh City scores more
36%
level
20%
East Kilbride scores more
43%

East Kilbride at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs East Kilbride

East Kilbride beat Edinburgh City 1-0 in League Cup on July 23, 2019.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.