East Kilbride 4–0 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

East Kilbride

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Edinburgh City

J. Balde 75', 18'

J. Robertson 72'

C. Young 60'

4/18/2026

League Two · Round 34K-Park Training Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

East Kilbride49%

×Draw23%

Edinburgh City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

East KilbrideExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.33

East Kilbride

1.83

Edinburgh City

1.33

East Kilbride creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 98 away

2.30

creates per match

1.36

1.30

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

East Kilbride

2.30

Edinburgh City

1.36

allows per match

East Kilbride

1.30

Edinburgh City

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Kilbride ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

East Kilbride or draw

72%

East Kilbride or Edinburgh City

77%

Draw or Edinburgh City

51%

Winning margin

East Kilbride wins by 2+

27%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

East Kilbride 1+ goals

84%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

54%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

28%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

74%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

38%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

64%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Kilbride at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Kilbride attack 2.30 + Edinburgh City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Edinburgh City attack 1.36 + East Kilbride defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

East Kilbride scores more

49%

level

23%

Edinburgh City scores more

28%

East Kilbride at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

18'

36'

44'

50'

60'

C. Young↳ B. Mcluckie

62'

K. Foster← B. Mcluckie

62'

K. Robertson← J. Leitch

65'

K. Hamilton← K. Kitchin

67'

C. Law← T. Daramola

72'

J. Robertson↳ S. Fagan

75'

J. Balde↳ C. Young

87'

D. Iserhienrhien

East

Edinburgh

22

16

5

15

26

8

23

24

18

▼

Kitchin

25

Iserhienr

27

▼

Daramola

1

Hepburn

5

A

23

4

3

10

⚽

Robertson

6

▼

Leitch

25

Spence

7

A

▼

Mcluckie

8

⚽2

Balde

11

⚽A

Young

Manager: Michael Kennedy

62'▲K. Foster←▼B. Mcluckie

62'▲K. Robertson←▼J. Leitch

East Kilbride substitutes

21Morrison2Young12Foster16Dobbie19Robertson20Breen27Mylchreest

65'▲K. Hamilton←▼K. Kitchin

67'▲C. Law←▼T. Daramola

Edinburgh City substitutes

12Dewar17Hamilton20Law

Match Recap: East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City

East Kilbride beat Edinburgh City 4-0 in League Two on April 18, 2026.

Goals: J. Balde (18', 75'), C. Young (60'), J. Robertson (72').

The match was played at K-Park Training Academy in East Kilbride.

East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City