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ECUS vs Atletico Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

ECUS
ECUS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
Unknown 58', 1'
5/19/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ECUS65%
×Draw24%
Atletico Mogi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECUS
1.62
Atletico Mogi
0.51

ECUS creates 218% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

ECUS
1.44
Atletico Mogi
0.20

allows per match

ECUS
0.81
Atletico Mogi
1.80

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par
Atletico Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Atletico Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ECUS or draw
89%
ECUS or Atletico Mogi
76%
Draw or Atletico Mogi
35%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+
36%
Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals
80%
ECUS 2+ goals
48%
ECUS 3+ goals
22%
Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
40%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
9%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)
85%
Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Atletico Mogi away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atletico Mogi attack 0.20 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

ECUS scores more
65%
level
24%
Atletico Mogi scores more
11%

ECUS at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
58'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECUS vs Atletico Mogi

ECUS beat Atletico Mogi 2-0 in Paulista Série B on May 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (1', 58').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira in Suzano, São Paulo.