Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Mogi vs ECUS — Paulista Série B 2026

Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ECUS
ECUS
Gustavo Caires 90+2'
6/22/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Mogi30%
×Draw28%
ECUS42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mogi
1.05
ECUS
1.31

ECUS creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Mogi
1.40
ECUS
0.82

allows per match

Atletico Mogi
1.80
ECUS
0.71

finishing

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par
ECUS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mogi ↓

ECUS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Mogi or draw
58%
Atletico Mogi or ECUS
72%
Draw or ECUS
70%

Winning margin

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
11%
ECUS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
9%
ECUS 1+ goals
73%
ECUS 2+ goals
38%
ECUS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
41%
ECUS (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mogi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

ECUS away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mogi attack 1.40 + ECUS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

ECUS attack 0.82 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Mogi scores more
30%
level
28%
ECUS scores more
42%

ECUS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
Gustavo Caires

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Atletico Mogi 0–1 ECUS

ECUS beat Atletico Mogi 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Gustavo Caires (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.