Ecuador W 0–1 Colombia W: Result & Stats

Ecuador W

FT

0 – 1

Colombia W

C. Usme 14'

4/10/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ecuador W49%

×Draw25%

Colombia W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ecuador WExpected goals in this matchColombia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.05

Ecuador W

1.55

Colombia W

1.05

Ecuador W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

1.15

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ecuador W

1.35

Colombia W

0.96

allows per match

Ecuador W

1.15

Colombia W

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ecuador W+0.00on par

Colombia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ecuador W ↓

Colombia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ecuador W or draw

74%

Ecuador W or Colombia W

75%

Draw or Colombia W

51%

Winning margin

Ecuador W wins by 2+

25%

Colombia W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ecuador W 1+ goals

79%

Ecuador W 2+ goals

46%

Ecuador W 3+ goals

20%

Colombia W 1+ goals

65%

Colombia W 2+ goals

28%

Colombia W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ecuador W (draw refunded)

65%

Colombia W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ecuador W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Colombia W away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ecuador W attack 1.35 + Colombia W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Colombia W attack 0.96 + Ecuador W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ecuador W scores more

49%

level

25%

Colombia W scores more

26%

Ecuador W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ecuador W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. Usme

42'

C. Capurro

46'

A. Ponce← A. Ponce

66'

E. Arias← E. Arias

69'

I. Guerra← I. Guerra

77'

D. Montoya

78'

G. Lattanzio← G. Lattanzio

90+1'

M. Pavi← M. Pavi

90+5'

S. Martinez← S. Martinez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff