Colombia W 1–2 Ecuador W: Result & Stats

Colombia W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ecuador W

D. Montoya 86'

N. Bolanos 62'

J. Espinales 45+1'

7/13/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Colombia W57%

×Draw24%

Ecuador W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colombia WExpected goals in this matchEcuador W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.92

Colombia W

1.74

Ecuador W

0.92

Colombia W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.43

creates per match

1.32

0.52

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Colombia W

1.43

Ecuador W

1.32

allows per match

Colombia W

0.52

Ecuador W

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombia W+0.00on par

Ecuador W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombia W ↓

Ecuador W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colombia W or draw

80%

Colombia W or Ecuador W

76%

Draw or Ecuador W

43%

Winning margin

Colombia W wins by 2+

32%

Ecuador W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Colombia W 1+ goals

82%

Colombia W 2+ goals

52%

Colombia W 3+ goals

25%

Ecuador W 1+ goals

60%

Ecuador W 2+ goals

23%

Ecuador W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Colombia W (draw refunded)

74%

Ecuador W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombia W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.52 · 21 matches

Ecuador W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombia W attack 1.43 + Ecuador W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ecuador W attack 1.32 + Colombia W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Colombia W scores more

57%

level

24%

Ecuador W scores more

20%

Colombia W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Colombia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

J. Espinales

46'

M. Ramirez← M. Ramirez

46'

C. Reyes← L. Caicedo

46'

C. Arias← M. Vanegas

59'

L. Santos← L. Santos

62'

N. Bolanos

86'

D. Montoya

87'

D. Montoya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff