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ECU Joondalup vs Kingsley Westside — Western Australia State League 1 2024

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
3 – 0
Kingsley Westside
Kingsley Westside
4/13/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 4Pentanet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup49%
×Draw21%
Kingsley Westside31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
2.19
Kingsley Westside
1.71

ECU Joondalup creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
2.64
Kingsley Westside
1.50

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.91
Kingsley Westside
1.73

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Kingsley Westside+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Kingsley Westside →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
69%
ECU Joondalup or Kingsley Westside
79%
Draw or Kingsley Westside
51%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
29%
Kingsley Westside wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
89%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
64%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
37%
Kingsley Westside 1+ goals
82%
Kingsley Westside 2+ goals
51%
Kingsley Westside 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
61%
Kingsley Westside (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Kingsley Westside away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + Kingsley Westside defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Kingsley Westside attack 1.50 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
49%
level
21%
Kingsley Westside scores more
31%

ECU Joondalup at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: ECU Joondalup 3–0 Kingsley Westside

ECU Joondalup beat Kingsley Westside 3-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Pentanet Stadium in Perth.