ECU Joondalup 4–3 Dianella White Eagle

ECU Joondalup

FT

4 – 3

Dianella White Eagle

8/31/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 22Forrest Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup42%

×Draw21%

Dianella White Eagle37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchDianella White Eagle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.86

ECU Joondalup

1.98

Dianella White Eagle

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

2.64

creates per match

1.82

1.91

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

2.64

Dianella White Eagle

1.82

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.91

Dianella White Eagle

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Dianella White Eagle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Dianella White Eagle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

63%

ECU Joondalup or Dianella White Eagle

79%

Draw or Dianella White Eagle

58%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

23%

Dianella White Eagle wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

86%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

59%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

31%

Dianella White Eagle 1+ goals

84%

Dianella White Eagle 2+ goals

55%

Dianella White Eagle 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

53%

Dianella White Eagle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Dianella White Eagle away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + Dianella White Eagle defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dianella White Eagle attack 1.82 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

42%

level

21%

Dianella White Eagle scores more

37%

ECU Joondalup at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff