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Dianella White Eagle vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Dianella White Eagle
Dianella White Eagle
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
6/15/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 11Dianella Reserve 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dianella White Eagle67%
×Draw16%
ECU Joondalup17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dianella White Eagle
3.16
ECU Joondalup
1.61

Dianella White Eagle creates 96% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dianella White Eagle
2.68
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Dianella White Eagle
1.23
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Dianella White Eagle+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dianella White Eagle ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Dianella White Eagle or draw
83%
Dianella White Eagle or ECU Joondalup
84%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
33%

Winning margin

Dianella White Eagle wins by 2+
48%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dianella White Eagle 1+ goals
96%
Dianella White Eagle 2+ goals
82%
Dianella White Eagle 3+ goals
59%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
80%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
48%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dianella White Eagle (draw refunded)
79%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dianella White Eagle at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dianella White Eagle attack 2.68 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.16

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Dianella White Eagle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dianella White Eagle scores more
67%
level
16%
ECU Joondalup scores more
17%

Dianella White Eagle at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dianella White Eagle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dianella White Eagle vs ECU Joondalup

Dianella White Eagle beat ECU Joondalup 5-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dianella Reserve 3 in Perth.