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ECU Joondalup vs Bayswater City — Western Australia NPL 2019

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
4 – 2
Bayswater City
Bayswater City
8/28/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 21ECU Joondalup A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup40%
×Draw22%
Bayswater City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
1.80
Bayswater City
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
1.94
Bayswater City
2.02

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.48
Bayswater City
1.66

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Bayswater City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Bayswater City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
62%
ECU Joondalup or Bayswater City
78%
Draw or Bayswater City
60%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
21%
Bayswater City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
83%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
54%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
27%
Bayswater City 1+ goals
83%
Bayswater City 2+ goals
52%
Bayswater City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
51%
Bayswater City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Bayswater City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Bayswater City defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bayswater City attack 2.02 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
40%
level
22%
Bayswater City scores more
38%

ECU Joondalup at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECU Joondalup vs Bayswater City

ECU Joondalup beat Bayswater City 4-2 in Western Australia NPL on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at ECU Joondalup A in Perth.