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Bayswater City vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia NPL 2019

Bayswater City
Bayswater City
FT
1 – 1
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
8/12/2020Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 7Frank Drago Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bayswater City46%
×Draw23%
ECU Joondalup31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayswater City
1.81
ECU Joondalup
1.47

Bayswater City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bayswater City
2.25
ECU Joondalup
1.33

allows per match

Bayswater City
1.61
ECU Joondalup
1.36

finishing

Bayswater City+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayswater City ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bayswater City or draw
69%
Bayswater City or ECU Joondalup
77%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
54%

Winning margin

Bayswater City wins by 2+
25%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bayswater City 1+ goals
84%
Bayswater City 2+ goals
54%
Bayswater City 3+ goals
27%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
77%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
43%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bayswater City (draw refunded)
59%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayswater City at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayswater City attack 2.25 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Bayswater City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bayswater City scores more
46%
level
23%
ECU Joondalup scores more
31%

Bayswater City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayswater City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayswater City vs ECU Joondalup

Bayswater City and ECU Joondalup drew 1-1 in Western Australia NPL on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Frank Drago Reserve in Perth.