ECU Joondalup 2–2 Balcatta: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

2 – 2

Balcatta

8/24/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 21ECU Joondalup A (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup52%

×Draw22%

Balcatta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchBalcatta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.36

ECU Joondalup

2.00

Balcatta

1.36

ECU Joondalup creates 47% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 85 away

1.94

creates per match

1.24

1.48

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

1.94

Balcatta

1.24

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.48

Balcatta

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Balcatta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Balcatta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

74%

ECU Joondalup or Balcatta

78%

Draw or Balcatta

48%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

30%

Balcatta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

86%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

59%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

32%

Balcatta 1+ goals

74%

Balcatta 2+ goals

39%

Balcatta 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

67%

Balcatta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Balcatta away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Balcatta defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.00

Balcatta attack 1.24 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

52%

level

22%

Balcatta scores more

26%

ECU Joondalup at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff