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Balcatta vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia NPL 2019

Balcatta
Balcatta
FT
1 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
3/14/2020Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 1Grindleford Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Balcatta33%
×Draw25%
ECU Joondalup42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balcatta
1.32
ECU Joondalup
1.53

ECU Joondalup creates 16% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

creates per match

Balcatta
1.28
ECU Joondalup
1.33

allows per match

Balcatta
1.73
ECU Joondalup
1.36

finishing

Balcatta+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balcatta ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Balcatta or draw
58%
Balcatta or ECU Joondalup
75%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
67%

Winning margin

Balcatta wins by 2+
14%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Balcatta 1+ goals
73%
Balcatta 2+ goals
38%
Balcatta 3+ goals
15%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
78%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
45%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Balcatta (draw refunded)
44%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balcatta at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balcatta attack 1.28 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Balcatta defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balcatta scores more
33%
level
25%
ECU Joondalup scores more
42%

ECU Joondalup at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balcatta vs ECU Joondalup

Balcatta beat ECU Joondalup 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at Grindleford Reserve A in Perth.