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ECU Joondalup vs Armadale — Western Australia NPL 2019

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
0 – 4
Armadale
Armadale
3/27/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2ECU Joondalup A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ECU Joondalup47%
×Draw22%
Armadale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
2.02
Armadale
1.63

ECU Joondalup creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
1.94
Armadale
1.78

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.48
Armadale
2.11

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Armadale+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Armadale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
68%
ECU Joondalup or Armadale
78%
Draw or Armadale
53%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
27%
Armadale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
87%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
60%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
33%
Armadale 1+ goals
80%
Armadale 2+ goals
48%
Armadale 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
60%
Armadale (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Armadale away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 1.94 + Armadale defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.02

Armadale attack 1.78 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
47%
level
22%
Armadale scores more
32%

ECU Joondalup at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECU Joondalup vs Armadale

Armadale beat ECU Joondalup 4-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at ECU Joondalup A in Perth.