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Armadale vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia NPL 2019

Armadale
Armadale
FT
3 – 2
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
6/26/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 13Alfred Skeet Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Armadale36%
×Draw22%
ECU Joondalup42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armadale
1.67
ECU Joondalup
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 33 away

creates per match

Armadale
1.98
ECU Joondalup
1.33

allows per match

Armadale
2.29
ECU Joondalup
1.36

finishing

Armadale+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armadale ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Armadale or draw
58%
Armadale or ECU Joondalup
78%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
64%

Winning margin

Armadale wins by 2+
18%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Armadale 1+ goals
81%
Armadale 2+ goals
50%
Armadale 3+ goals
23%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
84%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
54%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Armadale (draw refunded)
46%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armadale at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.29 · 83 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armadale attack 1.98 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Armadale defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Armadale scores more
36%
level
22%
ECU Joondalup scores more
42%

ECU Joondalup at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armadale vs ECU Joondalup

Armadale beat ECU Joondalup 3-2 in Western Australia NPL on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Alfred Skeet Reserve in Perth.