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Echallens vs Azzurri 90 — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Echallens
Echallens
CANC
19:00
Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
3/25/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Echallens63%
×Draw20%
Azzurri 9018%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Echallens
2.18
Azzurri 90
1.06

Echallens creates 106% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 14 away

creates per match

Echallens
2.01
Azzurri 90
0.64

allows per match

Echallens
1.48
Azzurri 90
2.36

finishing

Echallens+0.00on par
Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Echallens ↓

Azzurri 90 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Echallens or draw
82%
Echallens or Azzurri 90
80%
Draw or Azzurri 90
37%

Winning margin

Echallens wins by 2+
39%
Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Echallens 1+ goals
89%
Echallens 2+ goals
64%
Echallens 3+ goals
37%
Azzurri 90 1+ goals
65%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
29%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Echallens (draw refunded)
78%
Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Echallens at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Azzurri 90 away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Echallens attack 2.01 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Azzurri 90 attack 0.64 + Echallens defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Echallens scores more
63%
level
20%
Azzurri 90 scores more
18%

Echallens at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Echallens vs Azzurri 90 — Match Preview

Echallens face Azzurri 90 on March 25, 2020 in this 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.