Azzurri 90 1–1 Echallens: Result & Stats

Azzurri 90

FT

1 – 1

Echallens

8/31/2019

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9027%

×Draw22%

Echallens51%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azzurri 90Expected goals in this matchEchallens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.01

Azzurri 90

1.42

Echallens

2.01

Echallens creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 84 away

1.08

creates per match

1.71

2.31

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Azzurri 90

1.08

Echallens

1.71

allows per match

Azzurri 90

2.31

Echallens

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Echallens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Echallens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw

49%

Azzurri 90 or Echallens

78%

Draw or Echallens

73%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+

12%

Echallens wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals

76%

Azzurri 90 2+ goals

41%

Azzurri 90 3+ goals

17%

Echallens 1+ goals

87%

Echallens 2+ goals

59%

Echallens 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)

35%

Echallens (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Echallens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Echallens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Echallens attack 1.71 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more

27%

level

22%

Echallens scores more

51%

Echallens at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Echallens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff