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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Unknown 71'
5/11/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2040%
×Draw26%
Corinthians U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
1.41
Corinthians U20
1.26

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
66%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Corinthians U20
74%
Draw or Corinthians U20
60%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
19%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
76%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
41%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
17%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
72%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
36%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
40%
level
26%
Corinthians U20 scores more
34%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: EC São Bernardo U20 0–1 Corinthians U20

Corinthians U20 beat EC São Bernardo U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: ? (71').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.