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Corinthians U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Yago 53'
L. F. dos Santos de Nardi 43'
Pedrinho 40'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U2053%
×Draw24%
EC São Bernardo U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
1.71
EC São Bernardo U20
1.05

Corinthians U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
77%
Corinthians U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
76%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
47%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
29%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
82%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
51%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
24%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
65%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
28%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
69%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
53%
level
24%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
23%

Corinthians U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Pedrinho
43'
L. F. dos Santos de Nardi
53'
Yago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20

Corinthians U20 beat EC São Bernardo U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Pedrinho (40'), L. F. dos Santos de Nardi (43'), Yago (53').

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.