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Ebusua Dwarfs vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
3/28/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs55%
×Draw27%
New Edubiase18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.44
New Edubiase
0.70

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
82%
Ebusua Dwarfs or New Edubiase
73%
Draw or New Edubiase
45%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
28%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
42%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
18%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
50%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
16%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
75%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
55%
level
27%
New Edubiase scores more
18%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ebusua Dwarfs 0 – 0 New Edubiase

Ebusua Dwarfs and New Edubiase drew 0-0 in Division One League on March 28, 2026.