Ebusua Dwarfs 1–2 New Edubiase: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

1 – 2

New Edubiase

2/20/2014

Premier League · Round 17Robert Mensah Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs60%

×Draw23%

New Edubiase17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchNew Edubiase

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.81

New Edubiase

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 115% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 5 away

1.41

creates per match

0.60

1.09

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.41

New Edubiase

0.60

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.09

New Edubiase

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

New Edubiase →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

83%

Ebusua Dwarfs or New Edubiase

77%

Draw or New Edubiase

40%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

35%

New Edubiase wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

84%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

54%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

27%

New Edubiase 1+ goals

57%

New Edubiase 2+ goals

21%

New Edubiase 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

78%

New Edubiase (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.41 + New Edubiase defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

New Edubiase attack 0.60 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

60%

level

23%

New Edubiase scores more

17%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff