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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
M. Tsiboah 21'
11/29/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs50%
×Draw27%
Berekum Chelsea24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.44
Berekum Chelsea
0.90

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.30
Berekum Chelsea
0.72

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.07
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Berekum Chelsea
73%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
50%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
25%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
42%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
18%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
59%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
23%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
68%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.57 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.30 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
50%
level
27%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
24%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Tsiboah
26'
69'
72'
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebusua Dwarfs vs Berekum Chelsea

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Berekum Chelsea 1-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2020.

Goals: M. Tsiboah (21').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.