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Berekum Chelsea vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
2 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
K. Owusu 83'
S. Badu 53'
E. Afram 18'
4/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Berekum Chelsea53%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.41
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.72

Berekum Chelsea creates 96% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 26 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.85

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.59
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
81%
Berekum Chelsea or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
47%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
76%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
41%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
17%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
51%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
16%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
74%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.85 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
53%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
19%

Berekum Chelsea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
E. Afram
41'
53'
S. Badu
75'
79'
83'
K. Owusu
83'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 2–1 Ebusua Dwarfs

Berekum Chelsea beat Ebusua Dwarfs 2-1 in Premier League on April 18, 2021.

Goals: E. Afram (18'), S. Badu (53'), K. Owusu (83').

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.