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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
2 – 1
Bechem United
Bechem United
R. Amoah 29'
S. Abubakar 20'
A. Karim 85'
7/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs48%
×Draw27%
Bechem United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.43
Bechem United
0.95

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.30
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.07
Bechem United
1.55

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
75%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Bechem United
73%
Draw or Bechem United
52%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
24%
Bechem United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
76%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
42%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
17%
Bechem United 1+ goals
61%
Bechem United 2+ goals
25%
Bechem United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
66%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.30 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
48%
level
27%
Bechem United scores more
25%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
20'
S. Abubakar
29'
R. Amoah
53'
S. Owusu← S. Owusu
79'
F. Twene← F. Twene
82'
C. Mensah← C. Mensah
85'
A. Karim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 2–1 Bechem United

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Bechem United 2-1 in Premier League on July 18, 2021.

Goals: S. Abubakar (20'), R. Amoah (29'), A. Karim (85').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.